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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|